人口变动与“十四五”教育规划编制思考

Thoughts on Population Changes and Educational Planning in the 14^th Five-Year Plan Period

以人口预测为基础,研究分析了从目前到2035年的教育需求状况。从学龄人口总量看,未来教育需求增长不大,但受城镇化进程的影响,城镇学前至高中阶段的教育需求旺盛,农村各阶段学龄人口则开始下降;本专科阶段高等教育适龄人口将小幅增长,峰值在2035年;23-30岁人口在"十四五"时期将大幅度下降,会对研究生教育和继续教育方向产生一定影响。故对"十四五"时期教育发展提出以下建议:继续增加城镇学前教育和义务教育学位供给,提前谋划城镇高中阶段教育布局结构,抓住契机调整高等教育体系结构,不断加大继续教育和技术培训力度,全力确保"十四五"期间教育经费增长落实到位。

The paper analyzes the demand for education in China from present to 2035 based on the population projection.Although the future demand for education will not increase much in terms of the total school-age population,the demand in urban area from the pre-school to high school will increase significantly and the school-age population in rural area begins to decrease both due to Chinese urbanization process.College-age population will increase slightly and peak in 2035.The population aged between 23 and 30 will decline significantly during the 14^th Five-Year Plan period,which will have an impact on the development of postgraduate education and continuing education.Therefore,the following suggestions are put forward for the educational development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The supply of pre-school and compulsory education in urban area should be increased.A development scheme of high school in urban area should be made in advance.The structure of higher education system should be adjusted during the period.Continuing education and technical training should be enhanced.Finally,the increase of educational appropriations should be fully implemented during the 14^th Five-Year Plan period.