湖北省卫生总费用预测及影响因素研究

Research on the Prediction and Influencing Factors of Total Expenditure on Health in Hubei Province

目的:对湖北省未来5年卫生总费用及筹资结构进行预测,并对影响卫生总费用的因素进行分析,为湖北省卫生事业发展提供建议。方法:采用灰色马尔可夫模型对卫生总费用及筹资结构进行预测,并采用灰色关联法对湖北省卫生总费用的影响因素进行分析。结果:未来5年湖北卫生总费用将稳步增长,筹资结构将呈现以社会卫生支出为主的特征;人均GDP、农村居民人均可支配收入、每千人口床位数与卫生总费用的灰色关联度排在前3位,总人口和65岁以上老年人口占总人口的比重排在末2位。结论:湖北卫生总费用的快速上涨将对经济发展产生负面影响;人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入和农村居民人均可支配收入代表的经济因素是影响湖北省卫生总费用的主要因素;总人口、65岁以上老年人口占总人口的比重、平均受教育年限和城镇人口比重为代表的人口因素影响力最弱;医疗资源和政策因素的作用居两者之间。

Objective:To forecast the total expenditure on health and financing structure of Hubei province in the next 5 years,to analyze the factors affecting the total expenditure on health,so as to provide suggestions for the development of health services in Hubei province.Methods:The Grey Markov model was used to predict the total expenditure on health and the financing structure,and the influencing factors of total expenditure on health in Hubei province were analyzed by the grey correlation method.Results:It is predicted that the total expenditure on health in Hubei province will increase steadily in the next 5 years,and its financing structure will be characterized by social health expenditure.The grey correlation degree of GDP per capita,disposable income per capita of rural residents,the number of beds per thousand population with the total expenditure on health were in the top three.The proportion of the total population and the elderly over 65 years old population to the total population was in the bottom two.Conclusion:The rapid increase of the total expenditure on health in Hubei province will have a negative impact on the economic development.The economic factors represented by per capita GDP,per capita disposable income of urban residents and per capita disposable income of rural residents are the important factors affecting the total expenditure on health in Hubei province,the population factors represented by the total population,the proportion of the elderly over 65 years old in the total population,the average number of years of education and the proportion of urban population are the weakest,medical resources and policy factors are between them.