金融“脱实向虚”测度与影响因素研究——基于全球价值链的视角

The Study of Estimation and Influence Factors on FIRE Shifting from Real Economy to Fictitious Economy——Based on the Perspective of Global Value Chain

本文在投入产出模型基础上构建测度一国金融服务实体经济指标。整体来看,2000—2014年42个样本国金融服务实体经济绝对值呈上升趋势。与世界平均水平和美国相比,我国金融服务实体经济绝对值较高,但我国金融服务实体经济指数较低,表明我国金融与实体经济发展不协调,存在一定“脱实向虚”发展特征。本文进一步从全球价值链视角实证检验影响金融服务实体经济的因素,研究发现:第一,实体经济GVC地位越高,越能促进金融服务实体经济,这一影响在OECD国家更为显著。第二,金融发展与金融服务实体经济关系在高金融发展水平国家表现为负相关,在低金融发展水平国家为倒U型关系。结合中国实际情况,本文认为,我国应提升全球价值链中我国实体经济地位,积极落实一系列促进金融服务实体经济“堵疏并举”措施,注重金融与实体经济的协调发展,增强金融服务实体经济能力。

With the worldwide development of finance shifting from real economy to fictitious economy,how to measure and compare the degree and development trend of such shift between countries and what factors affect such shift are worth researching.Based on the Improvement Input-Output Model,this paper constructs two indices to measure each country's FIRE servicing real economy.As a whole,from 2000 to 2014,the absolute amount of FIRE servicing the real economy in the sample countries shows an upward trend;the index of FIRE servicing the real economy in the sample countries is bounded by 2008,which experienced the change of first falling and then rising.Compared with the world average level and the United States,the absolute value of China's FIRE servicing the real economy is higher,but the index of China's FIRE servicing the real economy is lower.These mean China's finance development and real economy are not coordinated and there are a certain features of finance shifting from real economy to fictitious economy.The paper further identifies the factors that affect FIRE servicing the real economy from the perspective of global value chain and conducts empirical tests with cross-border panel data from 42 countries.Empirical tests show that:firstly,the higher the position of GVC in the real economy,the more it can promote FIRE servicing real economy,which is stronger in OECD countries;secondly,the relationship between financial development and FIRE servicing real economy is different depending on the level of financial development of countries:in countries with high level of financial development,there is negative correlation;while in countries with low level of financial development,there is inverted U-shaped relationship;thirdly,all other factors show inhibition effect on FIRE servicing real economy,except that PPI growth rate and per capita GDP are positively correlated with FIRE servicing real economy,and trade openness has an inverted U-shaped relationship with FIRE servicing the real economy.Considering the actual situation of China,this paper holds that against the background of global value chain,China should promote the development of real economy,actively implement a series of measures to promote financial services to the real economy,pay attention to the coordinated development of Finance and the real economy,and enhance the ability of financial services to the real economy.