收入与经济同步增长的福利效应研究

Research on the Welfare Effect of the Simultaneous Growth of Income and Economy

测算收入与经济同步增长的福利效应是理解与解决收入增长与经济增长不同步问题的关键。本文将收入与经济不同步增长这一典型事实纳入Lucas消费增长的福利效应模型,构建收入与经济同步增长的福利效应分析框架。基于反事实分析法对中国省份样本的测算结果显示,收入与经济不同步增长会降低中国城镇居民福利水平,平均而言,如果实现收入增长与经济增长的同步性,城镇居民消费将提高17个百分点;福利效应具有高度的地区异质性特征,因地制宜地纠正福利成本较大地区的收入与经济不同步增长更具紧迫性,居民福利增进的潜力更大。有效提高城镇居民的工资收入、财产收入和经营收入是纠正收入增长与经济增长不同步以最终实现两者同步增长的关键,而努力做好国民收入分配调节、进一步扩展金融投资渠道、营造鼓励大众创业的良好环境是十分重要的政策手段。

Measuring the welfare effect of the simultaneous growth of income and economy is the key to understanding and solving the problem of non-synchronization of income growth and economic growth.This paper incorporates the typical fact that income and economy grow out of step into the Lucas(1987)welfare effect model of consumption growth,and constructs an analysis framework for the welfare effect of simultaneous growth of income and economy.Based on the counterfactual analysis method,the calculation results of a sample of Chinese provinces show that the unsynchronized growth of income and economy will reduce the welfare level of Chinese urban residents.On average,if income growth and economic growth are synchronized,urban residents’consumption will increase by 17%.Welfare effects are characterized by a high degree of regional heterogeneity.It is more urgent to correct the unsynchronized growth of income and economy in areas with higher welfare costs according to local conditions,and the potential for residents’welfare to increase is greater.Effectively increasing the wage income,property income and operating income of urban residents is the key to correcting the unsynchronized growth of income and economy in order to achieve simultaneous growth of both,and striving to regulate the distribution of national income,further expanding financial investment channels,and creating a good environment for encouraging mass entrepreneurship are very important policy measures.