基于CREAM的驾驶员人因可靠性分析研究

Human Reliability Analysis on Driver Based on CREAM

驾驶员的不安全行为是导致交通事故的直接原因,针对我国公路交通安全现状,提出一种基于CREAM的驾驶员人因可靠性分析研究方法。一方面根据公路交通事故的特征与驾驶员自身的特点将CREAM回溯分析法具体化,构建了适用于公路交通领域的驾驶员人因事故回溯模型,同时,从CPC评分细则、控制模式的确定方式对CREAM预测分析法做出改进,改进后的CREAM法降低了模型不完备带来的不确定性,提高了驾驶员人误概率预测的准确性。运用这种方法对公路交通代表性事故进行回溯和预测,证实了改进后CREAM法的科学性及可行性。

Drivers'unsafe behavior is the direct cause of traffic accidents.Aiming at the status quo of highway traffic safety in China,this paper proposes a human reliability analysis research method of driver based on CREAM.According to the features of highway traffic accidents and the characteristics of drivers,the retrospective analysis method based on CREAM is embodied,and the driver's human error retrospective model suitable for highway traffic is constructed.At the same time,the predictive analysis method based on CREAM is improved both in the CPC scoring rubrics and the way in which control modes are determined.The improved method reduces the uncertainty caused by the incompleteness of the model and improves the accuracy of the driver's false probability prediction.The retrospective and predictive analyses are applied in the typical highway traffic accident,which verifies the correctness and practicability of the method.