从能源到地缘:波兰积极推动“三海倡议”的背景、动因及影响

From Energy to Geography:Background,Motivation and Impact of Poland's Promotion of " Three Seas Initiative"

近年来,波兰已经成为中东欧地区第一大和欧盟第七大天然气消费国。然而,波兰天然气长期以来高度依赖进口,只有不到1/3由国内开采生产,绝大部分天然气进口自俄罗斯。乌克兰危机的爆发,强烈地触动了波兰对于国家领土安全的敏感神经;北溪2号项目的启动引发了波兰对能源安全的担忧。由此可见,波兰积极推动"三海倡议"的动因必然涉及能源安全与地缘政治问题。而从波兰的历史演进来看,该倡议也不可避免地折射出其复苏大国的雄心。本文将从能源和地缘视角探析波兰积极推动连接波罗的海、黑海和亚得里亚海的“三海倡议”的背景、动因及其可能造成的影响。

In recent years,Poland has become the largest in Central and Eastern Europe and the seventh largest natural gas consumer in the European Union.However,Polish natural gas has always been highly dependent on imports,with less than one third of it produced domestically.The vast majority of natural gas imports come from Russia.The outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis has strongly touched Poland's sensitive nerves to the country's territorial security;the launch of the Nord Stream 2 project has sparked Poland's concerns about energy security.It can be seen that the motivation for Poland to actively promote the " Three Seas Initiative"necessarily involves energy security and geopolitical issues.From the historical evolution of Poland,the initiative also inevitably reflects the recovery of its ambitions.This paper explores the background,motivation and possible impacts of Poland's active promotion of the"Three Seas Init iative",which links the Baltic Sea,the Black Sea and the Adriatic,from an energy and geopolitical perspective.