中国光伏产业发展与“一带一路”新机遇——基于新结构经济学视角的解析

Development of the Photovoltaic Industry in China and New Opportunities from the Belt and Road Initiatives:Analysis from the Perspective of New Structural Economics

作为清洁可再生能源的太阳能光伏在世界能源结构中的地位日渐重要。中国的光伏产业在过去20年发展迅猛,已成为主导国际市场的领先型产业。本文运用新结构经济学原理与方法对中国光伏产业的发展过程分阶段、分产业链环节进行梳理总结,重点就该产业在各不同发展阶段面临的核心挑战、相关产业政策的得失、政府与市场的互动进行剖析。分析表明,中国光伏产业的发展印证了新结构经济学的基本理论,即产业发展要获得成功,必须发挥禀赋比较优势,既需要"有效的市场",又需要"有为的政府",同时还需要尽力避免政府的"乱为"与"不作为"。展望未来,中国光伏产业亟需抓住"一带一路"的历史机遇"走出去",向"一带一路"不同层次的国家进行梯级转移,这既有利于自身的升级转型发展,也有利于这些国家更好地实现工业化和可持续增长。

As a type of clean and renewable energy,the solar photovoltaic(PV)energy has become increasingly important in the global energy system.The PV industry in China has been making tremendous progress in the past two decades and has already become a leading industry in the global market.In this paper,we apply the principles and methodology of new structural economics(NSE)to the analysis of China’s PV industry stage by stage and component by component along its value chain.Our focus is on the stage-dependent key challenges along the industrial development,evaluations of relevant industrial policies and analyses of the interaction between state and market.The analysis shows that the development of China’s PV industry supports the basic theory of NSE,that is,to achieve the success in industrial development,we should give full play to the comparative advantage of endowment,which requires not only an"effective market",but also a"facilitating government",and at the same time,we need to try our best to avoid the government’s"disorderly action"and"inaction".Looking to the future,it is in urgent need for China’s PV industry to seize the historic opportunity of the Belt and Road Initiative,achieving the gradient transfer among countries of different economic levels.Therefore,China’s PV industry could upgrade and transform itself together with benefits brought to the involved countries for their industrialization and sustainable growth.