河南省新冠肺炎确诊病例时空特征分析

Spatial-Temporal Analysis of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Henan

为了掌握河南省新型冠状肺炎病例的时空特征,为疫情防控、政府部门管理和资源调配提供科学依据.采用时空分析方法对河南省新型冠状病毒确诊病例进行研究,从时间和空间角度分析2020年1-2月全省确诊病例的分布特征,采用回归分析方法分析确诊病例和来自湖北的移动人口之间的关系.河南省疫情最为严重的地级市有信阳市、南阳市、驻马店和郑州市,疫情较轻的包括三门峡市、濮阳市、济源市和鹤壁市;河南省新冠肺炎确诊人数在一月底和二月初增长较快,2月中旬之后疫情得到有效控制;确诊人数和流动人口(来源于湖北)迁徙指数具有正相关性.研究成果为卫生健康管理部门对疫情的防控提供了参考依据,加强对疑似病例和在鄂返豫人员的监测和管理.

This study aims to identify the temporal and spatial characteristics of COVID-19 in Henan Province so as to provide scientific basis for epidemic prevention and control,government management and resource allocation.Spatial-temporal analysis and regression analysis were used to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics and the relationship between the confirmed cases and the mobile population from Hubei in Henan Province in Jan.and Feb.,2020.The most serious region of COVID-19 in Henan included Xinyang,Nanyang,Zhumadian and Zhengzhou,whereas Sanmenxia,Puyang,Jiyuan and Hebi were the least affected cities.The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Henan province increased fast in late January and early February,and the epidemic situation was effectively controlled after mid-February.There is a positive correlation between the number of confirmed cases and the migration index of the floating population(from Hubei Province).It is found that the epidemic is controlled to some extent,which provides a reference for health management departments to prevent and control the epidemic situation,and strengthens the monitoring and management of suspected cases and the person leaving Hubei to Henan.