CAFTA框架下贸易便利化对中国进口贸易的影响——基于随机前沿引力模型

The Impact of Trade Facilitation on China-ASEAN ImportPotential under CAFTA Framework:Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

贸易便利化是否促进进口是新时代中国实现贸易均衡、优化消费结构的重要课题。通过构建高质量贸易便利化指标,利用2010—2018年中国与37个主要贸易伙伴国的经贸数据,引入随机前沿引力模型来研究CAFTA框架下贸易便利化对中国进口贸易的影响。研究发现:除新加坡和马来西亚外,中国与东盟其他成员国的贸易便利化水平偏低,地区差异化显著,增长疲软;贸易间的非效率因素是造成进口贸易额无法达到潜在最大贸易值的主要原因;提升贸易便利化水平可以显著降低进口贸易中存在的阻力;我国对各贸易伙伴的进口效率不断提升,CAFTA内部进口潜力相当大,其中柬埔寨、新加坡、菲律宾和印度尼西亚等国表现尤为突出。

Whether trade facilitation promotes imports is an important issue for China to achieve trade balance and optimize consumption structure in the new era.This paper studies the impact of trade facilitation on China's import trade under the CAFTA framework by constructing high-quality trade facilitation indicators and using the economic and trade data of China and 37 major trading partners from 2010 to 2018,and introducing a stochastic frontier gravity model.The study found that except Singapore and Malaysia,the level of trade facilitation between China and other ASEAN member countries is low,with significant regional differences and weak growth.Inefficient factors in trade are the main reasons why the import trade volume cannot reach the potential maximum trade value.Promoting trade facilitation level can significantly reduce the resistance in import trade;China′s import efficiency to various trading partners is continuously improving,and the internal import potential of CAFTA is quite large,with Cambodia,Singapore,Philippines,Indonesia and other countries showing particularly outstanding performance.