人民币兑美元实际汇率对中国经济增长的影响:基于国际收支的中介效应

The effect of Real Exchange Rate of RMB to US Dollar on China’s economic growth: Based on the Mediating Effect of the Balance of Payments

文章基于国际收支约束下的经济增长理论,检验了中国自加入WTO以来人民币兑美元实际汇率对中国经济增长的影响及国际收支的中介效应。研究发现,短期内人民币兑美元实际汇率对中国经济增长的影响具有直接效应和以国际收支为中介变量的中介效应,但该中介效应在长期内不存在。无论是长期还是短期,从总效应角度看,实际汇率贬值对中国经济增长均有抑制作用。人民币兑美元实际汇率贬值将引起中国对美进出口需求弹性呈现非同步性降低,且出口需求弹性降幅小于进口的需求弹性,即人民币兑美元实际汇率贬值将加剧中美贸易的失衡态势。汇改政策有利于放松中美两国间的国际收支约束,使得贸易条件改善并可缓解中美贸易的持续失衡。结论表明,在中美贸易摩擦持续背景下,维持国内物价稳定对人民币兑美元实际汇率和中国经济增长有积极意义,积极拓展外部需求市场可降低中美贸易摩擦对中国经济增长的负面冲击,此外适度有序地进行汇改可改善汇率波动对中美贸易和中国经济增长的不利影响。

Based on the Balance of Payments Constraint Growth(BPCG)theory,this article examines the effect of Real Exchange Rate of RMB to US dollar on China’s economic growth and its mediating effect since China’s entry into the WTO.The study found that:(1)In the short term,the impact of Real Exchange Rate of RMB to US dollar on China’s economic growth have direct effect and mediating effect by the balance of payments as an intermediate variable,but in the long term,there is no mediating effect of the balance of payments.Whether in the long or short term,from the perspective of total effects,the depreciation of the real exchange rate will have a contraction effect on China’s economic growth;(2)The depreciation of the Real Exchange Rate of RMB to US dollar will cause China to reduce the elasticity of its import and export demand to the United States asynchronously,and the decline in the elasticity of export demand will be less than the elasticity of demand for imports;(3)the reform of exchange rate policy will help relax the balance of payments of China-US,and improve the terms of trade can ease the imbalance of China-US situation.The results show that in the context of the ongoing China-US Trade friction,maintaining domestic price stability has positive significance for the Real Exchange Rate of RMB to US dollar and economic growth;Actively expanding of external demand markets can reduce the negative effect of China-US trade friction on China’s economic growth;In addition,moderately implementation of the exchange rate reforms can improve the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations on China-US trade and China’s economic growth.