陕西引汉济渭工程的多目标调度方案风险评价

Risk Evaluation of Multi-objective Dispatching Scheme for Shaanxi Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project

陕西引汉济渭工程是解决陕西省关中、陕北缺水的跨流域调水工程,为了工程效益切实发挥,有必要对水库群调度方案进行风险评价。针对黄金峡水库优先供水和三河口水库优先供水的2种调度模式下的方案,从调度的目标出发建立了引汉济渭调水工程多目标调度风险评价指标体系,用层次分析法对各指标的权重进行赋值,采用逼近理想解的排序法得到了各调度方案的风险值,为最终决策提供技术支撑。对2种优先供水模式下的调度方案分别进行评价,供水风险不足指标是方案综合风险的最主要影响因素;黄金峡水库优先供水的模式一的2个方案比三河口水库优先供水的模式二的2个方案综合风险率小且供水恢复性好。推荐模式二下的2个方案。

Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project in Shanxi Province is an inter-basin water diversion project to solve the water shortage in Guanzhong and northern Shaanxi provinces.In order to give full play to the benefits of the project,it is necessary to evaluate the risk of reservoir group operation scheme.Under two operation modes for giving priority to water supply for the Huangjinxia Reservoir and the Sanhekou Reservoir,this paper establishes the risk evaluation index system of multi-objective operation of Hanjiang-to-Weihe Diversion Project based on the objective of operation,assigns the weight to each index by AHP,and obtains the risk value of each operation scheme by TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)method,which provides technical support for the final decision.After evaluation of operation schemes under two prior water supply modes,respectively,the results show that the comprehensive risk of the scheme is mainly affected by insufficient indicators of water supply risk;the comprehensive risk rate of the two schemes under mode 1 of prior water supply for Huangjinxia Reservoir is lower than that of the two schemes under mode 2 of prior water supply for Sanhekou Reservoir,and the two schemes under mode 1 have better water supply recovery than that under mode 2.Therefore,two schemes under the mode 1 are recommended.