摘要
针对油管挂下放安装风险分析过程中因缺乏实际数据而无法量化分析的问题,提出一种基于模糊贝叶斯网络系统故障概率计算方法。该方法将区间模糊变量引入到根节点的构建中描述节点的模糊故障率,有效弥补了模糊贝叶斯网络系统在风险分析中故障数据不精确及逻辑关系不明确等方面的不足。将该方法应用到油管挂下放安装风险分析中,对油管挂下放安装失效事件进行了定量评估,得到事件失效的故障概率。分析结果表明:该方法有效解决了部件故障率模糊和不确定性的问题,具有一定的工程应用价值。
To address the inability of quantified analysis due to the lack of actual data during the risk analysis process of tubing hanger installation,a fault probability calculation method based on fuzzy Bayesian network system is proposed.This method introduces the interval fuzzy variable into the construction of the root node to describe the fuzzy failure rate of the node,which effectively compensates for the insufficiency of the fault data and the unclear logical relationship of the fuzzy Bayesian network system in the risk analysis.The method is applied to the risk analysis of the tubing hanger installation,and the failure event of the tubing hanger installation is quantitatively evaluated to obtain the failure probability of the event.The analysis results show that the method could effectively address the problem of fuzzy and uncertainty of component failure rate and has certain engineering application value.
作者
刘超
刘健
朱元坤
崔俊国
肖文生
Liu Chao;Liu Jian;Zhu Yuankun;Cui Junguo;Xiao Wensheng(College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Huadong);National Engineering Laboratory of Marine Geophysical Prospecting and Exploration Equipment)
出处
《石油机械》
北大核心
2020年第10期71-77,共7页
China Petroleum Machinery
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“海洋浮式平台工程设计一体化集成系统软件”(2016YFC0302900)
国家工信部高技术船舶科研项目“水下油气生产系统全生命周期可靠性保障技术体系研究”课题三之子课题一“水下油气生产系统多因素耦合失效模式研究”([2017]614号)
国家工信部海洋工程装备科研项目“水下立式采油树研制”之子课题一“水下立式采油树油管悬挂器系统设计研究”和子课题六“水下立式采油树下水安装及回收技术研究”([2013]420号)。
