强热带风暴“碧利斯”(0604)极端降水研究回顾

Review of research on extreme precipitation induced by Severe Tropical Storm BILIS(2006)

强热带风暴“碧利斯”于2006年7月14日在我国福建省登陆,登陆后一路西行,在福建、浙江、湖南、江西、广东、广西多个省份产生强降水,其陆上维持时间之长、影响范围之广、降水极端性之强,在历史上极为罕见。“碧利斯”引发的降水主要有三个极值中心,分别对应着降水的三个阶段,其中第二阶段降水极端性最为突出,在湖南、江西和广东交界处发生了暴雨增幅,造成严重的洪涝灾害。为了更加全面地认识此次过程,本文对“碧利斯”产生极端降水的机制做了回顾总结,分别从有利的大尺度形势、中尺度系统的影响、地形作用、云微物理过程以及动力因子的诊断分析五个角度进行,最后对“碧利斯”极端降水区别于其他极端降水个例的机理以及进一步可能的研究方向进行了讨论。

After the landfall in Fujian Province on 14 July 2006,Severe Tropical Storm BILIS(2006)moved westward,producing heavy precipitation in many provinces,including Fujian,Zhejiang,Hunan,Jiangxi,Guangdong,and Guangxi.Its long duration on land,wide range of impact,and strong intensity of precipitation are extremely rare in history.The precipitation induced by BILIS mainly has three extreme value centers,corresponding to three stages of precipitation,respectively,among which the second stage is the most prominent.The rainstorm amplification occurs at the border of Hunan,Jiangxi,and Guangdong provinces,causing serious floods.To get a more comprehensive understanding of the process,the paper reviews the research on mechanism of the extreme precipitation induced by BILIS from the following 5 key aspects,including favorable large-scale situation,mesoscale system,topography,cloud microphysical process,and diagnostic analysis of dynamic factors.Finally,the differences in the mechanism between the extreme precipitation induced by BILIS and other extreme precipitation cases and possible further researches on BILIS are discussed.