汾河源头区域土地利用及生境质量时空演变的多情景模拟

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Spatiotemporal Evolution of Land Use and Habitat Quality in the Source Area of Fenhe River Basin

土地利用变化及生境质量服务的多情景模拟对制定区域差别化的生态保护和耕地保护政策具有重要的意义。以汾河源头区域为例,借助Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型,对土地利用转移情况、影响因子和未来变化趋势进行了多情景模拟分析,然后运用InVEST模型分析土地利用变化对生境质量带来的影响。结果表明:不同驱动因子的解释能力具有差异,11个驱动因子整体解释效果较好,ROC值都在0.85以上;自然发展情景、生态保护情景、耕地保护情景下6种地类的变化方向、生境演变特征均有所不同;2017—2030年自然发展情景、生态保护情景、耕地保护情景生境质量分别为0.78,0.76,0.81,0.72;不同情景下的生境质量结果均表明随着海拔和坡度的升高,生境质量也不断得到提高,但是同一海拔和坡度下不同情景生境质量的变化具有差异。

The multi-scenario simulation of land use change and habitat quality is of great significance for the formation of different ecological protection and farmland protection policies.Taking the source area of Fenhe River Basin as an example,we established a multi-scenario simulation of land use transfer,influencing factors and future land use change with the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model.Then the InVEST model was used to analyze the impact of land use change on habitat quality.The results showed that the interpretation ability of different driving factors was different,11 driving factors all had better overall interpretation effect,and the ROC values were all above 0.85;the change direction and habitat quality of six land types were different under three scenarios;from 2017 to 2030,the habitat quality index of natural development scenario,ecological protection scenario and farmland protection scenario were 0.78,0.76,0.81 and 0.72,respectively;the habitat quality improved with the increase of altitude and slope,but the changes of habitat quality in different scenarios were different at the same altitude and slope gradient.