县域生态效率影响因素分析及趋势预测——以宁南山区三县为例

Analysis and Prediction of Influential Factors on Ecological Efficiency——Case of Three Counties in Suothern Ningxia

为了协调经济发展、资源节约与生态保护三者之间的关系,以同心县、西吉县和隆德县为研究区,运用扩展㶲分析方法、地理探测器和灰色预测模型,对2008—2017年宁南山区三县生态效率及其影响因素进行了分析,预测其发展趋势,探析与资源环境承载力相适应的县域发展模式。结果表明:(1)从变化特征来看,2008—2017年,同心县的生态效率变化幅度大于其他两县,西吉县变化比较平缓,隆德县生态效率水平高于其他两县,整体上三县的生态效率变化差异比较显著,但发展水平整体偏低,均存在较大的提升空间。(2)从影响因素来看,城市化率、一产占GDP的比重、人均GDP、政府投资总额、科技支出等因素对三县生态效率的影响最显著,其中城市化率是影响同心县和西吉县的主导因素,一产占GDP比重是影响隆德县的主导因素,整体上各因素对三县生态效率的影响程度比较相近。(3)从预测趋势来看,2018—2025年,同心县呈现持续缓慢下降趋势,西吉县呈现持续上升趋势,隆德县变化幅度微小。总体上三县生态效率的预测趋势差异性比较显著。

In order to coordinate the relationship between economic development,resource conservation and ecological protection,taking Tongxin County,Xiji County and Longde County as research areas,we used extended exergy analysis method,geographic detector and grey prediction model to analyze the ecological efficiency and its influencing factors of the three counties in southern Ningxia from 2008 to 2017.Finally,we measured its development trend to propose green development model with county,exploring the County development model that was compatible with the resources and environmental carrying capacity.The results show that:(1)from the characteristics of change between 2008 to 2017,the ecological efficiency of Tongxin County was greater than those of the other two counties,and the change of Xiji County was relatively flat;the level of Longde County was higher than those of the other two counties.The difference in ecological efficiency among the three counties was quite significant,but the overall level of development was low,and there was room for the improvement;(2)in terms of influencing factors,such as urbanization rate,the proportion of primary production to GDP,per capita GDP,total government investment,and scientific and technological expenditure had the most significant impact on the ecological efficiency of the three counties.The urbanization rate was the dominant influence factor in Tongxin County and Xiji County;the ratio of primary production to GDP was the dominant factor in Longde County;the overall impact of various factors on the three counties was similar;(3)with respect to judging from the forecasting trend,from 2018 to 2025,Tongxin County showed the sustained and slow downward trend,Xiji County showed a continuous upward trend,and the change range of Longde County was small;cenerally,the forecasting trends of ecological efficiency in the three counties were significantly different.