生态红线约束下万州区土地利用情景模拟及生态价值评估

Simulation of Land Use Situation and Ecological Value Assessment in Wanzhou District Under the Constraints of Ecological Red Line

为研究在生态红线划定之后对区域生态环境价值的影响,以重庆市万州区为例,通过FLUS模型模拟2025年自然发展情景和生态保护情景下土地利用的变化情况,通过改进的万州区生态价值系数并结合土地利用变化情况计算出生态系统服务总价值,最后分析了不同地类价值系数和面积变化对总价值的影响。结果表明:(1)选取3个方面的8个驱动因子适合对于研究区的土地利用模拟且FLUS模型Kappa值大于0.8表明利用FLUS模型对研究区的模拟适应性较好;(2)通过计算万州区2017年现状、2025年自然发展情景和生态保护情境下的生态系统服务总价值分别为41.06亿元、40.83亿元和41.00亿元,在设定的情境下只有林地的生态系统服务总价值都表现为增长的现象;(3)由万州各土地类型的敏感性都小于1表明万州区的生态系统服务价值对于生态价值系数变化缺乏弹性,结果可信;在生态变化度分析中,林地的变化度指数最大说明林地的面积变化对生态系统服务总价值的影响最大;(4)在2025年设定的两种情景模拟中,生态保护情景与自然发展情景林地的生态系统服务价值相比有一定程度的增加,建设用地的生态系统服务价值则下降,表明生态红线的划定对于新增建设用地的蔓延扩张有一定的限制作用。

In order to study the impact on the ecological value of the region after the delineation of the ecological red line,Wanzhou District of Chongqing City was used as an example to simulate the land use change in the natural development scenario and ecological protection scenario in 2025 through the FLUS model.The total value of ecosystem services was calculated based on the ecological value coefficient of land and land use changes.Finally,the impact of changes in the value coefficient and area of different land types on the total value was analyzed.The results show that:(1)8 driving factors selected from the three aspects are suitable for the simulation of land use in the study area,and the FLUS model Kappa value is greater than 0.8,which indicates that the simulation of the study area with the FLUS model has good adaptability;(2)by calculating the current status of Wanzhou District in 2017,natural development scenarios in 2025,and the total value of ecosystem services in the context of ecological protection,the total values of ecosystem services are 4.106×10~9 yuan,4.083×10~9 yuan,and 4.100×10~9 yuan,respectively;in the set scenario,only the total value of ecosystem services of forestland is a phenomenon of growth;(3)the sensitivity of each land type in Wanzhou is less than 1,indicating that the ecosystem service value of Wanzhou District is inelastic to the change of the ecological value coefficient,and the results are credible;in the analysis of the degree of ecological change,the change index of the forest land is the largest,which shows that the change in the area of forestland has the greatest impact on the total value of ecosystem services;(4)in the two scenarios set up in 2025,the ecological protection scenario will have increased to a certain extent compared with the ecosystem service value of natural development scenarios;the value of ecosystem services for construction land will be decreasing,indicating that the delineation of the ecological red line for new construction land spread expansion will have certain restrictions.