区域物流发展对城市群一体化影响的实证研究——以扬子江城市群为例

Empirical Research on the Influence of Regional Logistics Development to Urban Agglomeration Integration——A Case Study of Yangtze River City Groups

为揭示区域物流发展对城市群一体化影响的内在机理和动力机制,运用系统动力学方法构建区域物流与城市群一体化关系的LIC(Logistics-Industry-Cities)模型,结合扬子江城市群中南京和扬州市2008~2016年经济和物流的相关数据,对模型进行检验和仿真分析。通过改变中心城市(南京)和外围城市(扬州)的物流投资系数、经济与交通一体化影响因子值等参数,得出合理加大区域物流投资、实现城市间基础设施的共建共享可以推动城市群一体化水平的提高,但是拉动作用在短期内并不显著,存在累积效应。同时,外围城市经济的发展是城市群一体化水平提高的重要动力。

In the context of regional economic integration,logistics integration as an advanced form of modern logistics,has become an important driving force for the integrated development of urban agglomerations.In order to reveal the internal mechanism and dynamic mechanism of regional logistics development impact on urban agglomeration integration,the system dynamics method is used to construct the LIC(Logistics-Industry-Cities)model of regional logistics and urban agglomeration integration,combined with the Yangtze River urban agglomeration in Nanjing and Yangzhou city,2008~2016 economic and logistics related data,the model is tested and simulated analysis.By changing the logistics investment coefficient of the central city(Nanjing)and the peripheral cities(Yangzhou),and the factors of economic and transportation integration impact factors,it is concluded that rationally increasing regional logistics investment and realizing the mutual construction and sharing of inter-city infrastructure can promote the improvement of urban agglomeration level,but the pulling effect is used in the short term,it is concluded that increasing regional logistics investment can promote the improvement of urban agglomeration level,but the pulling effect is not significant in the short term.At the same time,the development of the peripheral city economy is an important driving force for the improvement of the level of urban agglomeration.