“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化与中国出口——基于拓展引力模型的实证分析

Trade Facilitation of the Countries Along the Belt and Road and China’s Exports:Empirical Analysis Based on Extended Gravity Model

文章通过泰勒转换将引力模型多边阻力予以量化,利用2008~2017年中国对沿线国家HS4位码产品出口数据,考察了沿线国家贸易便利化对中国出口的影响。结果表明:(1)沿线国家贸易便利化水平提升对中国出口构成明显促进作用,其中进口文件数每减少1%、港口基础设施质量每提升1%,中国出口相应提高2.8%和0.3%;(2)沿线国家贸易便利化对中国不同类别产品出口的正向影响存在异质性,相较于农矿产品,杂项制品受到的影响最强,制造业产品次之;(3)在制造业产品内部,沿线国家贸易便利化对劳动与技术密集型产品的促进作用强于资本密集型产品。文章提出沿线国家应通过简化通关手续、加强港口基础设施建设等措施推进贸易畅通,进而促进沿线区域深度融合。

This paper quantifies the multilateral resistance of gravity model through Taylor transformation and investigates the impact of trade facilitation of the countries along the Belt and Road(B&R)on China’s exports based on China’s export data of HS 4-digit products to the countries along B&R from 2008 to 2017.The results show that:(1)the improvement of trade facilitation level of the countries along B&R plays a significant role in promoting China’s exports.For every 1%decrease in the number of import documents and 1%increase in the quality of port infrastructure,China’s exports will increase by 2.8%and0.3%respectively;(2)there is heterogeneity existing in the positive impact of trade facilitation of the countries along B&R on China’s exports of different categories of products.Compared with agricultural and mineral products,miscellaneous products are the most affected,followed by manufacturing products;(3)within manufactured products,the promotion effect of trade facilitation of the countries along B&R on labor-intensive and technology-intensive products is greater than that on capital-intensive products.This paper puts forward that the countries along B&R should simplify customs clearance procedures,strengthen port infrastructure construction and take other measures to promote unimpeded trade,so as to give impetus to the in-depth integration of the regions along B&R.