中国碳排放强度空间非均衡的测度与分解——兼论地区差距的形成与缩小

Space Disequilibrium Measure and Decomposition of Carbon Emission Iintensity in China:A Consideration of Disparities Among Regions

厘清碳排放强度地区差距的空间演变态势及其影响因素是实现碳排放强度持续下降的关键环节。本文计算了1995-2017年中国省级碳排放强度的地区差距基尼系数,应用Dagum方法对其进行了地区差距分解,并基于分解结果探讨了形成碳排放强度地区差距的主要原因,提出了缩小地区差距的主要途径。研究结果表明:①碳排放强度地区差距处于“相对合理”区间。地区内差距呈“W”型变化态势且对地区差距的影响长期稳定;地区间差距持续增加,是地区差距的主要来源;超变密度略有波动,聚类分析结果表明碳排放强度的空间分布大致呈西-中-东梯度减弱态势,离群区域省份碳排放强度的变化影响着超变密度的变化态势。②经济持续发展能够有效缩小地区差距,能源结构优化、清洁能源发展、城镇人口增加会加剧地区差距。建议应把握好调控碳排放强度地区差距的重点与着力点,研发和使用清洁低碳技术,发掘减排潜力,逐步缩小地区差距,推动区域碳排放和经济的协调发展。

To clarify the spatial evolution trend of the regional gap and its influencing factors in carbon emission intensity is the key point to realize its sustainable reduction.Based on the 1995-2017 Chinas provincial data,this paper uses the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method to explore the gaps of carbon emission intensity,and dis・cussed the main influencing factors of regional differences in carbon emission intensity based on the results of gap decomposition.The results of the study showed that:①the regional gap in carbon emission intensity is within a"relatively reasonable"range.The within-inequalities show a certain volatility,which has a long-term stable influence on the regional gap.The between-inequalities show an increasing trend,which is the main source of the regional gap.The transvariation-inequalities fluctuated slightly,and the result of cluster analysis showed a weakening trend of the west-middle-east gradient in carbon emission intensity.②Sustainable economic development could effectively narrow the regional gap in carbon intensity,the continuous optimization of the energy structure,especially the development of clean energy will aggravate the regional gap in carbon intensity,the growing urban population will also lead to the widening of the regional gap in carbon intensity.It is suggested that we should grasp the key points and focal points of regulating the regional gap in carbon emission intensity,develop and use clean and low-carbon technologies,tap the emission reduction potential,gradually narrow the regional gap,and promote the coordinated development of regional carbon emission and economy.