对外直接投资与中国产业结构升级——基于产能转移与技术进步双重视角的研究

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and The Upgrading of China's Industrial Structure:Emprical Research based on the Perspective of Capacity Transfer and Technological Progress

本文使用2004-2016年中国省级面板数据,重点从产能转移和技术进步双重视角,实证检验对外直接投资对中国产业结构升级的影响效应。研究发现,对外直接投资不仅在总体上显著促进了中国产业结构的升级,同时还存在“产能转移”和“技术进步”两种影响机制;相较于西部地区,对外直接投资对中国东部和中部地区产业结构升级的促进作用更大;相较于金融危机爆发前,金融危机爆发后对外直接投资对中国产业结构升级的促进作用有所降低;随着产业结构发展水平的提升,对外直接投资对中国产业结构升级的边际效应呈现显著“倒U型”特征。经过内生性处理和更换核心变量测度方法后,本文核心结论依然成立。

From the perspective of capacity transfer and technological progress,this paper empirically tests the specific impact of ouward foreign direct investment( OFDI) on the upgrading of China’s industrial structure by using China’s provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016. It is found that OFDI not only has a significant promote effect on the upgrading of China’s industrial structure,but also has two intrinsic influence mechanisms of "capacity transfer"and"technical progress". Compared with the western region,OFDI palys a greater role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure in the eastern and central regions. After the outbreak of the financial crisis,the effect of OFDI on the upgrading of China’s industrial structure has been reduced. The quantile regression results show that with the improvement of the industrial structure level,the marginal effect of OFDI on the upgrading of industrial structure presents a significant"inverted U-shaped"feature. After endogenous treatment and replacement of the core variable measurement method,the main conclusions of this paper are still established.