不确定性事件对进出口贸易的异质性冲击

The Heterogeneous Impact of Uncertain Events on Import and Export Trade

频繁发生的不确定事件如国际金融危机、中美贸易战、新冠疫情等对我国进出口贸易造成负面影响,本文基于1995-2020年进口和出口的数据特征,通过B-N分解理论对其进行趋势分解,以验证不确定事件对进口和出口的异质性冲击。结论认为,(一)不确定性事件对生产、消费和投资部门产生影响,通过负收入效应、负产出效应和负财富效应等途径导致进出口需求减少;(二)我国进口和出口具有较显著的确定性成分和长期稳定增长的良好趋势,存在抵御不确定事件负面冲击的能力;(三)出口的波动更具有周期性特征,其主要由于国外需求更具有消费弹性,而突发事件的负面冲击会直接导致消费需求萎缩。(四)随机性冲击对出口和进口的影响存在差异,方差分解和脉冲效应显示,不确定事件的发生和持续对我国出口的影响将超过进口。应通过实施以刺激增长为核心的逆周期调节政策对冲不确定事件带来的负面冲击,短期增加市场需求,以保证进口和出口的平稳增长。

Frequent uncertain events such as the international financial crisis,the Sino-US trade war,and the new crown epidemic have negatively affected my countrys import and export trade.Based on the data characteristics of imports and exports from 1995 to 2020,this article uses B-N decomposition theory to analyze them Trend decomposition to verify the heterogeneous impact of uncertain events on imports and exports.The conclusion is that:1.Uncertainty events have an impact on the production,consumption and investment sectors,leading to a reduction in import and export demand through negative income effects,negative output effects,and negative wealth effects;2.Chinas imports and exports are more significant The deterministic component and the good trend of long-term stable growth have the ability to withstand the negative impact of uncertain events;3.The fluctuation of exports is more cyclical,mainly due to the more elastic consumption of foreign demand,and the negative impact of unexpected events directly lead to shrinking consumer demand.4.The impact of random shocks on exports and imports is different.Variance decomposition and impulse effects show that the occurrence and duration of uncertain events will have more impact on my country's exports than imports.It is necessary to implement countercyclical adjustment policies centered on stimulating growth to hedge against negative shocks brought about by uncertain events and increase market demand in the short term to ensure the steady growth of imports and exports.