太原市环境问题现状及可持续发展路径分析

Current situation of environmental problems and analysis of sustainable development path in Taiyuan

根据太原市2010~2018年工业“三废”排放量和人均GDP数据,拟合太原市环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC),基于情景预测法对太原市未来EKC曲线趋势进行预测。结果表明,太原市工业“三废”排放量与人均GDP分别拟合的曲线均已超过EKC曲线模型拐点,城市化进程已经处于后期。通过大气环境EKC曲线的情景模拟可知,无论采用哪种情景模式预测,太原市都将在未来15年内完成EKC曲线模型中倒“U”型的后半段进程。

According to the industrial"three wastes"emissions and per capita GDP of Taiyuan city from 2010 to 2018,the trend of the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)curve of Taiyuan city was predicted with the scenario prediction method by fitting EKC.The results showed that the fitted curves of industrial"three wastes"emissions and per capita GDP had exceeded the inflection point of the EKC curve model,and the urbanization process was in the late stage.According to the scenario simulation of EKC curve of atmospheric environment,no matter which scenario was used,it was indicated that Taiyuan would complete the second half process of EKC curve model which showed a inverted"U"shape in the next 15 years.