利用图像信息方法研究库车MS5.6、于田MS6.4地震前异常演化

ANOMALOUS EVOLUTION BEFORE KUCHE MS5.6 AND YUTIAN MS6.4 EARTHQUAKE BY PATTERN INFORMATICS METHOD

基于新疆地震台网中心提供的地震目录,将32°~44°N,78°~90°E作为研究区域,在选定完备震级的基础上,采用PI方法对研究区进行时空扫描。选取网格尺度为0.5°×0.5°,预测时间窗为1年,滑动时间为1个月,分析了2020年1月16日库车M S5.6地震和6月26日于田MS6.4地震震前震区附近“地震热点”演化过程。结果显示,2次地震前预测时段内震中附近区域均出现“地震热点”,其中于田MS6.4地震前热点分布较稳定,持续时间长。随预测时间窗往后推移,目标震中附近地震热点分布范围逐渐增大,发震概率呈现由弱到强的演化特征。尝试缩短预测时段,进行逐月时空扫描,考察地震热点随时间演化过程,具有一定的参考价值。

Based on the earthquake catalogue provided by the center of Xinjiang seismic network,taking 32°~44°N,78°~90°E as the study area,and on the basis of selecting complete magnitude,the study area was scanned by PI method.The grid scale was 0.5°×0.5°,the prediction time window was one year,and the sliding time was one month.The evolution process of“seismic hot spots”near the earthquake area before Kuqa M S5.6 earthquake on January 16th,2020 and Yutian MS6.4 earthquake on June 26th,2020 were analyzed.The results showed that there are“seismic hot spots”in the area near the epicenter during the prediction period before the two earthquakes,among which the hot spot distribution before Yutian MS6.4 earthquake was relatively stable and lasts for a long time.As the prediction time window went back,the distribution range of earthquake hot spots near the target epicenter gradually increased,and the occurrence probability present the evolution characteristics from weak to strong.In this paper,we tried to shorten the prediction period,conducted monthly space-time scanning,and investigated the evolution process of seismic hot spots with time,which had certain reference value.