染病数量作为检测信息的布病动力学模型分析

Dynamic model analysis of Brucellosis with the number of infections as the detection information

检测扑杀措施的实施对动物疫病的防控和净化起着重要的作用,基于血清学检测发现的染病者数量作为检测行为的依据,建立时滞动力学模型分析检测行为对布病传播的影响.首先通过无病平衡点的局部稳定性给出基本再生数R0,并证明无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;然后分析了地方病平衡点的存在性和疾病的持续性;最后通过数值模拟发现,当参数满足一定条件时会出现周期解,说明检测行为会导致复杂的传播动力学行为,对疾病的防控是不利的.

The implementation of detecting and killing measures plays an important role in the prevention,control and purification of animal epidemic diseases. This article is based on serological testing found that the number of infected animals as a basis for the detection behavior, time delay dynamics model is established for the analysis of test behavior influences the spreading of brucellosis. Firstly, the basic reproductive number R0 is given by the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and it is proved that disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Then the existence of endemic equilibrium point and the persistence of the diseases are analyzed. Finally, through numerical simulation, it is found that periodic solutions will appear when the parameters meet certain conditions, indicating that detection behavior will lead to complex transmission dynamics behavior,which is unfavorable to the prevention and control of diseases.