新疆农八师垦区不同播期棉花苗期的终霜冻风险

Final Frost Risk of Cotton at Seedling Stage at Different Sowing Dates in 8th Reclamation Area of Xinjiang

为新疆农八师垦区棉花丰产栽培计划的制定及苗期终霜冻风险的预防提供技术支撑,选择1989-2018年乌兰乌苏农业气象试验站棉花物候观测资料及1961-2017年的气候资料,运用气候诊断分析方法,研究新疆农八师垦区不同播期棉花苗期的终霜冻风险。结果表明:1989-2018年农八师垦区棉花的播种期集中分布在4月,其中70%集中在中旬播种;1961-2018年农八师垦区稳定10℃初日为3月下旬至4月下旬,平均为4月12日;稳定12℃初日为4月上旬至5月上旬,平均为4月17日,较10℃初日晚5d;终霜期结束平均为4月15日,日期较为分散;因气候变暖,农八师垦区10℃初日(P>0.05)、12℃(P>0.05)初日及终霜日(P<0.01)呈提前趋势,12℃初日80%保证率作为棉花播种的适宜温度,并将播种期后推至4月26日至5月5日,终霜冻风险可降至3.4%~8.6%。农八师垦区棉花适时晚播可降低终霜冻风险。

In order to provide technical support for the formulation of cotton high-yield cultivation plan and the prevention of the risk of final frost in the seedling stage,based on the cotton phenology observation data of Wulan Wusu Agricultural Meteorological Experiment Station from 1989 to 2018 and the climate data from 1961 to 2017,the climate diagnosis and analysis method was employed to explore the risk of final frost in cotton seedlings at different sowing dates in Xinjiang 8th reclamation area.Results:From 1989 to 2018,the sowing period of cotton in 8th reclamation area was concentrated in April,of which70%was concentrated in the middle ten days;The first day of stable 10℃during 1961-2018 was from late March to late April,with an average of April 12;The first day of stable 12℃was from early April to early May,with an average of April 17,which is 5 days later than the first day of 10℃;The end of the final frost period was averagely on April 15,with scattered dates;Due to climate warming,the first day of10℃(P>0.05),the first day of 12℃(P>0.05)and the last day of frost(P<0.01)showed an advanced trend in 8th reclamation area.The 80%guarantee rate of the first day of 12℃was the suitable temperature for cotton sowing.After the planting period is postponed to April 26 to May 5,the risk of final frost could be reduced to 3.4%to 8.6%.The 8 th reclamation area should postpone the cotton sowing to an appropriate time to reduce the risk of final frost.