金融服务对经济增长的非线性效应——基于消费升级视角

Non Linear Effect of Financial Services on Economic Growth Based on the Perspective of Consumption Upgrading

消费升级是新时期消费需求结构调整的重要表现.文章采用2005年-2017年中国31省区的面板数据,实证分析了不同消费升级水平下金融服务对经济增长影响的非线性效应.结果表明:全国层面来看,在消费升级的影响下,金融服务对经济增长的影响作用显著存在着两阶段变化;分地区来看,金融服务对经济增长的影响也具有显著非线性变化,其中西部地区金融服务的经济增长效应最为明显.因此,要进一步加大对欠发达地区的金融投资力度,提高金融服务的供给能力,实现区域间金融服务与社会经济的协调发展.

Consumption upgrading is an important performance of the structural adjustment of consumption demand in the new era.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and regions in China from 2005 to 2017,this paper empirically analyzed the non-linear effects of financial services on economic growth under different consumption upgrading levels.The results showed that:at the national level,under the influence of consumption upgrading,financial services had a significant impact on economic growth.There were two stages of change.From the perspective of different regions,the impact of financial services on economic growth also had significant non-linear changes,especially in the western region.Therefore,we should further increase financial investments,improve the supply capacity of financial services,and achieve the coordinated development of financial services and social economy in underdeveloped areas.