中俄输油管线地温预测模型研究

Study on prediction model of ground temperature for Sino-Russian oil pipeline

中俄输油管线起点为黑龙江省漠河县连崟首站,终点为大庆市林源。管线全长965 km。输油管线系统与周围冻融土体发生水、热、力耦合作用,威胁管道的正常运营。本文依据漠大管道沿线地温资料,采用非线性拟合算法对漠大沿线多年冻土地温进行曲线拟合,提出不同分区的地温曲线拟合预测模型,进而依据地温预测模型对沿线多年冻土地温进行预测。研究结果表明:预测模型的理论地温值与实测值之间误差波动较小,提高了多年冻土地温的预测精度。

The starting point of the Sino-Russian oil pipeline is Lianzhen First Station in Mohe County of Heilongjiang Province,and the end point is Linyuan in Daqing City.The total length of the pipeline is 965km.The coupling effect of water,heat and force between the oil pipeline system and the surrounding frozen-thawed soil body threatens the normal operation of the pipeline.In this paper,based on the ground temperature data along the Moda pipeline,a nonlinear fitting algorithm is used to curve fit the permafrost temperature along the Moda pipeline,and different regions of the ground temperature curve fitting prediction models are proposed,and then the ground temperature of permafrost along the pipeline is predicted according to the prediction model.The results of research show that the fluctuation between the theoretical ground temperature value and the measured value of the prediction model is small,and it improves the prediction accuracy for the permafrost temperature.