家庭规划对储蓄的影响:“生命周期”效应还是“预防性储蓄”效应?

The Impact of Household Planning on Savings:“Life Cycle”Effect or“Precautionary Savings”Effect?

本文建立三期世代交叠模型,通过比较“生命周期”效应和“预防性储蓄”效应来探究家庭规划对储蓄和消费的影响。家庭人口结构是影响家庭决策的核心要素,对储蓄水平有正、负的子效应。本文从家庭人口结构切入,采用中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)进行实证研究,结果显示少儿人口占比下降和老年人口占比上升使家庭储蓄上升。其中,少儿人口占比对家庭储蓄影响的“生命周期”效应更显著,而老年人口占比的“预防性储蓄”效应更显著。具体机制如下:父母追求高质量教育,育儿教育支出增加导致家庭储蓄减少,提高孩子未来在人才市场的竞争力使家庭规划中的预防性储蓄增加;老年人预期寿命增加、社会保障不完善和代际财产继承等使家庭预防性储蓄增加,老年人医疗支出增加使家庭储蓄减少;城乡育儿教育支出呈现均等化趋势,农村家庭医疗支出对储蓄影响更大,社会网络关系是导致教育支出均等化和购买医疗保健品的重要原因,并且家庭规划对储蓄的影响存在区域差异。因此,建议通过提高公共服务水平和改善家庭规划减少消费约束,增加家庭合理支出,实现消费提质扩容,释放经济增长潜力。

This paper constructs a three-period overlapping generation model and discusses the effect of family planning on household savings and consumption by examining the“life cycle”effect and the“precautionary savings”effect.Demographic characteristics of households are key factors influencing household decision,which can have either positive or negative effects on savings.Utilizing the data from China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),we find that the decreasing proportion of children and the increasing proportion of the elderly raise the household savings.The“life cycle”effect plays a more significant role in the impact of proportion of children on household savings;however,the“precautionary savings”effect related with the share of the elderly is more significant.The mechanisms are as follows:parents pursue high quality education for their children,leading to increased educational costs and decreased savings.It follows that sharpen the competitiveness of children for the future talent market raise precautionary savings in the family planning.Rising life expectancy,imperfect social security system and inheritance increase precautionary savings of the elderly,while savings decrease due to medical expenditures of the elderly.The educational expenditures on children tend to equalize in both urban and rural areas.The effect of medical expenditure on savings is larger in rural areas than that in urban areas.Social network plays an important role in equalizing education cost and purchasing health care products.In addition,the effect of household planning on savings exhibits regional differences.Therefore,in order to improve the volume and quality of consumption and release the potential of economic growth,constraints have to be eased by improving public service and household planning,and reasonable household expenditure can be encouraged.