多样化、创新能力与城市经济韧性

Diversification,Innovation Capability and Urban Economic Resilience

在向高质量发展稳步迈进的过程中,面对内外部环境的复杂变化,增强经济韧性显得愈发重要。本文基于演化经济地理学的相关理论框架,探讨产业结构多样化(相关多样化和无关多样化)对经济韧性的直接作用,以及其通过驱动创新来影响经济韧性的间接作用。研究发现:2008年全球金融危机后,我国各个城市的经济韧性表现差异明显,产业结构越是多样化的城市经济韧性则越强;多样化对经济韧性的作用不仅表现为分散风险、抵御冲击的“自动稳定器”功能,更重要的是能够促进技术创新,帮助城市在恢复期做出适应性的结构调整;无关多样化水平越高的城市受到金融危机的冲击相对越小,而相关多样化水平越高的城市则因其创新能力较强,在恢复调整期表现出了更高的韧性;相关多样化主要通过一般性创新作用于经济韧性,而无关多样化则主要通过新经济创新作用于经济韧性。

In the process of steadily advancing towards high quality development,the role of economic resilience has become particularly important in the face of complex changes in the internal and external environment.Taking the 2008 global financial crisis as an external shock,this paper uses the GMM-SAR-RE method to measure the economic resilience of 230 cities in China,and tries to examine the diversification of industrial structure(relevant and irrelevant diversification)and how it affects economic resilience.This paper finds that:(1)The economic resilience differ greatly across cities in China.Cities with diversified industrial structure are more resilient.(2)The diversification in economic resilience not only acts as an“automatic stabilizer”to disperse risks and resist shocks,but is conducive to technological innovation,which can help cities to make structural adjustments in time for crisis,thus providing long-term guarantee for stepwise transformation and sustained resilience.(3)Irrelevant diversification has greater direct effect on economic resilience because it can disperse risks,and the related diversity is more obvious because it can promote the indirect impact of urban innovation on economic resilience.(4)Relevant diversification mainly affects economic resilience through general innovations,while irrelevant diversification affects economic resilience via innovations in the new economy.