城镇化为何没有推动居民消费倾向的提升?——基于半城镇化率视角的解释

Why Doesn't Urbanization Increase China's Consumption Rate?——An Explanation Based on the Semi-urbanization Rate

在我国,目前城镇化率的提升并没有带来居民消费率的提升。本文从城镇化进程中“迁移”和“转化”两个阶段出发,使用我国省级面板数据以及中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,探讨人口城镇化进程中“迁移”和“转化”之间的缺口——半城镇化率对城镇居民消费倾向的影响。实证结果表明,半城镇化率对居民消费率和城镇居民消费率具有显著的负向影响;在控制了城镇居民收入和常住人口城镇化率后,半城镇化率对城镇居民人均消费也会产生负向影响;对于城镇居民而言,半城镇化率提升会显著降低城镇居民的消费倾向;同时,半城镇化率对城镇居民,尤其是城镇户籍居民消费倾向则有明显的抑制作用。此外,在低房价区域,半城镇化率对城镇居民消费倾向的影响并不明显,但是在高房价区域,半城镇化率对城镇居民消费倾向,尤其是城镇户籍居民的消费倾向有显著的负向影响。本文认为各地区应快速推进新型城镇化战略,加快推进农业转移人口市民化进程,缩小常住人口与户籍人口城镇化缺口,进一步激发居民消费潜力。

In China,the increase in the urbanization rate has not led to the rise in household consumption rate.Driven by this observation,starting from the two stages—“migration”and“transformation”—in the process of urbanization,this paper empirically examines the effect of semi-urbanization rate on the consumption rate of urban residents using the provincial panel data and micro data from CFPS.The results show that the level of semi-urbanization has a significantly negative impact on both the consumption rates of urban residents as well as urban and rural residents together.After controlling income of urban residents and the urbanization rate of the long-term residents,the level of semi-urbanization has negative effect on per capita consumption of urban residents.For urban residents,after controlling the urbanization rate,the increase of the semi-urbanization rate caused by“migrant workers”moving from rural areas to cities will significantly hamper urban residents propensity to consume.In addition,in regions with low housing prices,the semi-urbanization level has no significant impact on the consumption tendency of urban residents.While in regions with high housing prices,the semi-urbanization level plays an important role in suppressing the consumption willingness of urban residents,especially for those with urban household registration.Therefore,in order to inspire the consumption potential of Chinese residents,policies should be exerted to promote the new urbanization strategies,accelerate the process of transforming“migrant workers”to urban residents and reduce the level of semi-urbanization.