快速城镇化地区耕地景观生态安全格局演变特征及其驱动机制

Evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of cultivated landscape eco-security patterns in rapid urbanization areas

【目的】探索快速城镇化地区耕地景观生态安全格局演变特征及其驱动机制新方法和新思路,为实施"18亿亩耕地红线"保护政策提供科学依据。【方法】以江苏扬州耕地景观为对象,运用Fragstas 4.2软件和ArcGIS10.2软件模拟计算扬州耕地景观安全格局时空演变特征;基于统计年鉴数据,运用地理探测器筛选出主导影响因素,并结合地理加权回归软件分析出影响因素之间的空间差异。【结果】扬州市耕地景观生态安全以市中心周边地区向西北方向逐年降低;社会经济影响因子解释度明显高于自然影响因子;各个主导社会经济因素对扬州市耕地景观生态安全格局的影响存在显著的空间差异。【结论】通过GIS空间模拟、地理探测器筛选和地理加权回归模型分析相结合的方法,可以科学准确地模拟分析出快速城镇化地区耕地景观生态安全格局时空演变特征及其驱动机制和空间差异。

【Objective】 The aim of this study is to explore new methods and ideas for determining evolution characteristics of cultivated land landscape ecological security patterns and its driving mechanisms in rapid urbanization areas, and to provide a scientific basis for implementing the "1.8 billion mu arable land" protection policy. 【Method】 Considering the cultivated land landscape of Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, as the object, we used Fragstas4.2 software and ArcGIS10.2 software to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the security pattern of the cultivated land landscape in the study area.Based on statistical yearbook data, we used the Geo-detector to screen for the dominant influencing factors and then included the information in the GWR 4.09 software to analyze spatial differences between the influencing factors. 【Result】 The landscape ecological security of cultivated land in Yangzhou City decreased annually from the areas surrounding the city center to the northwest.The explanatory degree of socio-economic impact factors was clearly higher than that of natural impact factors.There were significant spatial differences in the impact of various dominant socio-economic factors on the ecological security pattern of the cultivated land landscape in Yangzhou. 【Conclusion】Combining the GIS spatial simulation, geo-detector screening, and GWR model analysis, we could scientifically and accurately simulate and analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics, driving mechanisms, and spatial differences in the ecological security pattern of the cultivated land landscape in rapid urbanization areas.