基于产业转移背景下江苏典型地区电力需求预测研究

Research on electricity demand forecasting of typical areas in Jiangsu Province based on the background of industrial transfer

产业转移常伴随着要素流动,往往对地区的资源、能源、人口等相关要素带来需求影响。随着江苏产业结构调整的深入实施,地区产业转移将逐步提速。兼顾苏南、苏中、苏北以及江苏沿海与内陆城市产业结构的不同,选取苏州、南通、盐城、连云港、宿迁五市为案例,利用产业转型的关键特征变量,设置预测情景,基于支持向量回归模型,分别预测案例区域未来的电力需求。研究结果表明,2020-2022年内苏州、连云港、宿迁三地全社会用电量、第二产业用电量均呈现较快增长,南通、盐城两地则呈现出第二产业用电量稳步上升、全社会用电量趋于放缓的态势。研究结论为优化江苏省电网布局,实现社会经济可持续发展提供建议。

Industrial transfer is often accompanied by factor flow,which often brings demand impact on regional resources,energy,population and other related factors.With the further implementation of Jiangsu's industrial structure adjustment,regional industrial transfer will gradually speed up.In this paper,five typical cities in Jiangsu Province are selected as the cases,and the forecast scenarios are set up by using the key characteristic variables of industrial transformation.Based on the support vector regression model,the future electricity demand of the case area is predicted respectively.The results show that:from 2020 to 2022,the electricity consumption of both the whole society and the secondary industry in Suzhou,Lianyungang and Suqian will increase rapidly.In Nantong and Yancheng,the consumption of the secondary industry will increase steadily while that of the whole society will tend to slow down.The research conclusion provides suggestions for optimizing the distribution of Jiangsu power grid and realizing the sustainable development of social economy.