基于CA系统的澳大利亚森林火灾蔓延预测模型及应急物资调度应用

Prediction Model of Forest Fire Extension in Australia and Application of Emergency Materials Dispatching Based on CA system

以澳大利亚森林火灾为例,对影响森林火灾蔓延的相关因素进行分析,构建了基于元胞自动机的自然因素与火灾蔓延关系的森林火灾蔓延预测模型(NFFFE-CA),并绘制火灾蔓延程度-森林树木总量预测走势图和火灾蔓延下的森林树木总量的实时仿真图。为增强模型的真实性,从气温、平均降水量、气候类型以及植被类型等方面具体地考虑影响森林火灾发生和发展的相关因素。在理清森林火灾的蔓延机制之后,可供预测火灾发生的燃烧速度、破坏程度、火灾密度、火灾变化速度等。基于NFFFE-CA模型和层次分析法对火灾面积和气候类型进行全局衡量,最后对大型森林火灾发生后应急物资效用最大的调度方案进行了研究,以更好地建立、健全森林火灾预防及应急救援体系。

Taking the forest fire in Australia as an example,this paper analyzed the related factors affecting the spread of forest fire,built a prediction model of natural factors and forest fire extension based on cellular automata(NFFFE-CA),and drew out the prediction graph of the degree of fire spreading-forest trees volume and real-time simulation diagram of the total number of trees under the fire spreading.In order to enhance the authenticity of the model,the average air temperature,rainfall,climate types and vegetation types and so on were specifically considered to find the related factor affecting the occurrence and development of forest fire.After clearing the spreading mechanism of forest fire,this paper predicted the burning speed of fire,destruction degree,fire density,and fire change speed.The fire area and climate type were comprehensively measured based on the NFFFE-CA model and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method.Finally,this paper discussed the dispatching scheme with the maximum utility of emergency materials after the occurrence of large forest fires,so as to establish a better forest fire prevention and emergency rescue system.