堡垒式政策倡议联盟与中国的重大政策调整——基于近年来计划生育政策变迁的分析

Policy Advocacy Coalition with Fortress Style and Great Policy Adjustment in China:Analysis on the Changes of One-child Policy in Recent Years

政策倡议联盟理论相对于传统的政策过程理论更强调理论的解释性。西方的倡议联盟呈现出两方围绕着正式和制度化的平台形成政策辩论的景象,即"对垒式政策倡议联盟"。而在中国的政策变迁过程中,由于既定政策具有的权威性与稳固性特点,偶尔对政策的质疑和批判多是分散而无力的。但伴随着外在经济社会等客观形势的变化,在专家学者、人大代表和政协委员等松散的倡议"联盟"的努力下,可以使得民意和舆论发生转变,从而不断推动攻坚式的政策调整,最终推动中央实施锐意的政策变革,即以"堡垒式政策倡议联盟"推动政策的重大调整。近年来中国计划生育政策变迁就呈现出如此的样式。

Contrast to traditional policy process theory,the Policy-alliance theory emphasizes more cause-result explanation. The Western policy-alliances all present the picture of policy debate on formal and institutional platform,that is ‘policy-alliance with opposing each other style’. However,in the process of Chinese policy change,due to the authority and stability of the established policy,the occasional questioning and criticism of the policy are scattered and powerless. At the same time,some scholars,NPC Deputies and CPPCC members would do their best to come up with economic and social changes by building their loosing alliance which may making the public opinion change direction and the public opinion convert,so as push forward the policy adjustment continuously,and finally push the central government to implement the determined policy adjustment,that is the policy adjustment with the"policy-alliance with fortress type". In recent years,the change of China’s one-child policy has taken on such a pattern.