基于第二曲线理论的文献增长研究——以情报学为例

Discussion on the Literature Growth Based on the Second Curve Theory:Taking the Information Science as an Example

将理论和实际相结合,提出了新的文献逻辑增长曲线,为实现文献的可持续增长和学科的颠覆性创新发展提出建议。首先用第二曲线理论探讨了整个曲线的变化趋势,推导出逻辑增长曲线,再用文献抽样法,抽取并统计了中国知网42年间发表的关于情报学的论文和期刊数量,然后应用时间序列的方法预测两者未来5年的增长趋势,最后从第二曲线理论角度分析了文献的可持续增长机制。结果表明:逻辑增长曲线更符合文献增长的特点, 2012—2019年以及未来的5年,文献量仍将处于第二曲线的过渡增长期, 应做好学科融合和学科创新以刺激情报学学科的下一个增长点。

Combining theory with practice,this paper proposes a new logical growth curve of literature,and makes sug⁃gestions for the realization of sustainable growth of literature and the disruptive innovation of disciplines.This paper dis⁃cusses the trend of the entire curve based on the second curve theory,derives a logical growth curve,and then extracts and counts the number of papers and journals on information science published by CNKI in 42 years using the literature sam⁃pling method,and then uses the time series method to predict the growth trend of the two in the next five years,and finally from the perspective of the second curve,analyzes the sustainable growth mechanism of literature.The results show that the logical growth curve is more in line with the characteristics of literature growth.From 2012 to 2019 and the next five years,the volume of literature will still be in the transitional growth period of the second curve.Discipline integration and innova⁃tion should be done to stimulate the next growth point of the discipline of information science.