罗敷河流域径流演变特征及最小生态流量保障程度研究

Study on Runoff Evolution and Minimum Ecological Flow Guarantee Degree of Luofu River Basin

基于罗敷河罗敷堡水文站1956年~2015年逐月实测径流资料,选取集中度C d、不均匀系数C u分析径流年内分配不均匀程度,借助Mann-Kendall法、R/S分析法研究径流突变、趋势和持续性特征;依据逐月最小值法和Tennant法评价,确定了河流最小生态流量,并分析了突变前后河流最小生态流量保证程度、对未来保证最小生态流量进行了探讨。结果表明,未来一段时间罗敷河径流处于偏枯期,且径流分配不均匀性长期存在,这意味着水生生物生存环境逐渐恶化,不利于河道生态的健康发展。

Based on the measured monthly runoff data of Luofubao Hydrometric Station of Luofu River from 1956 to 2015,the indexes of concentration degree(C d)and non-uniformity coefficient(C u)are selected to analyze the nonuniform degree of runoff distribution in the year,and the characteristics of runoff mutation,trend and sustainability are studied with the help of Mann-Kendall method and R/S analysis method.The minimum ecological flow of the river is determined according to the evaluation of monthly minimum value method and Tennant method,and the guarantee degree of river minimum ecological flow before and after the mutation is analyzed to predict the guarantee degree of future minimum ecological flow.The results show that the runoff of Luofu River will be in the dry period in the future,and the uneven distribution of runoff will exist for a long time,which means that the living environment of aquatic organisms will gradually deteriorate,and is not conducive to the healthy development of river ecology.