连片深度贫困地区经济增长与城乡居民收入差距动态关联性研究——以甘肃临夏州为例

Studies on the Dynamic Relevance between Economic Growth and Income Gap of Urban and Rural Residents in Several Deep Poverty-Stricken Areas——Taking Linxia State of Gansu Province as A Case

以典型连片深度贫困地区甘肃临夏州为例,基于1998~2017年数据,建立向量自回归模型,在检验经济增长与城乡居民收入差距协整关系基础上,采用脉冲响应分析和方差分解法对二者动态关系进行分析。结果表明:经济增长与城乡居民收入差距间存在均衡关系,两组变量脉冲响应均为正,说明两者存在正向驱动效应。从方差分析看,经济增长对城乡居民收入差距变化的贡献率呈稳步上升态势,但上升幅度逐步减缓;在经济增长波动中,城乡居民收入差距的贡献率较为突出,并随时间推移逐步攀升。因此,要大力推进区域经济跨越式发展、摆脱已有路径依赖、激发内生增长动力,以治理连片深度贫困地区城乡居民收入差距。

Based on the data of 1998-2017 in Linxia Prefecture,Gansu Province,a typical poverty-stricken area,a vector autoregressive model was established in the paper.On the basis of examining the co-integration relationship between economic growth and income gap between urban and rural residents,the dynamic relationship between them was analyzed by impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.The results showed that there was a balanced relationship between economic growth and income gap between urban and rural residents.The impulse response of the two groups of variables was positive,indicated that there was a positive driving effect between them.From the results of variance analysis,the contribution rate of economic growth to the change of income gap between urban and rural residents was rising steadily,but the increase rate continued to slow down;in the fluctuation of economic growth,the contribution rate of income gap between urban and rural residents was more prominent,and gradually increased with the passage of time.Therefore,we should vigorously promote the leap-forward development of regional economy,get rid of the existing path dependence,stimulate endogenous growth momentum,and effectively control the income gap between urban and rural residents in the deep poverty-stricken areas.