跨海桥梁船撞风险综合评估

Comprehensive risk assessment of ship collision with sea-crossing bridge

近年来全世界范围内船撞桥事故时常发生,尤其是大型跨海桥梁,对其进行合理的船撞桥风险评估逐渐成为桥梁安全运营的重要保障之一。通过对近年国内外船撞桥案例调研分析,确定了影响事故的多重因素,建立包括4个二级风险评价指标和18个三级指标的层次化评价指标体系,并运用层次分析(AHP)法和熵权法,对各评价指标进行主客观综合赋权,明确各个风险因素对船舶撞击的重要性程度,基于模糊数学理论对船撞桥风险进行多层次综合评判。以浙江省舟山朱家尖跨海大桥为工程背景,结合该桥某年船舶通航统计数据,运用上述方法进行船撞桥风险评估,计算表明朱家尖跨海大桥平均风险评价值为4.22,属于可接受中风险水平,并提出了相应的风险控制对策及措施。

In recent years,there have been lots of ship-bridge collision accidents around the world,especially large sea-crossing bridges.Reasonable risk assessment of ship collision for sea-crossing bridges is an important guarantee for the safe operation of bridges.Through the investigation and analysis of ship-bridge collision accidents in recent years,multiple influencing factors leading to collision were determined and a hierarchical evaluation index system consisting of 4 secondary indicators and 18 third-level indicators was established.Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the Entropy Weight Method,the subjective and objective evaluation indicators were empowered to clarify the importance of various risk factors.According to the fuzzy theory,the risk of ship collision with sea-crossing bridge was evaluated comprehensively at multiple levels.As an example of sea-crossing bridge engineering,with the ship navigation statistics of a certain year,the risk assessment of ship collision with bridge for the Zhujiajian Sea-Crossing Bridge in Zhejiang Province was carried out by using the above methods.The results show that the average risk evaluation value of the Zhujiajian Sea-Crossing Bridge is 4.22,which belongs to the acceptable medium risk level.Relevant risk control measures are put forward.