安徽省财政教育支出地区分配差异的影响因素及预测研究

Influencing Factors and Predictive Research on Regional Distribution Difference of Fiscal Education Expenditure in Anhui Province

教育作为一种准公共产品,其发展需要政府提供强有力的资金保障,地方财政教育支出对教育水平的发展有着至关重要的影响。文章首先基于2018年安徽省各地级市的截面数据构建出多元线性回归方程,并进行了经济意义检验、统计检验和计量经济检验,以对地区教育支出差异的影响因素进行探究,后基于历史数据对各地级市2019—2025年的教育支出数额进行灰色预测。研究表明:人口数量和地区生产总值对安徽省各城市间的教育支出差异产生了一定影响,预计在2019—2025年各地级市的教育支出数额仍呈现不断上涨趋势,但上涨的幅度差存在较大的差异,铜陵市和淮南市的教育支出增长幅度领先于安徽省其他城市。

As a kind of quasi-public goods,the development of education needs strong financial guarantee from the government,and the local financial expenditure on education has a vital impact on the development of education level.Based on the cross-section data of Anhui Province in 2018,this paper first constructs a multivariate linear regression equation,and carries out economic significance test,statistical test and econometric test so as to explore the influencing factors of regional educational expenditure difference.Then,based on historical data,the paper predicts the amount of education expenditure in each prefecture-level city in 2019—2025.The study shows that the population and regional GDP have played some role in the differences in education expenditure of the cities in Anhui province.It is predicted that the education expenditure of all prefecture-level cities will continue to rise in 2019—2025,but there is a big difference in the increase range.Tongling city and Huainan City are ahead of other cities in Anhui province in the growth range of education expenditure.