金融集聚与宏观投资——基于分位数回归和中介效应模型的实证分析

Financial Agglomeration and Macro Investment:Empirical Analysis Based on Quantile Regression and Mediating Effect Model

利用2003—2017年中国省域面板数据,实证考察金融集聚对投资的影响,并采用中介效应模型分析金融集聚对宏观投资的作用机制。研究发现:从整体上看,金融集聚在显著提高宏观投资效率的同时能够有效抑制宏观投资规模过度扩张;只有达到较高水平,金融集聚才能影响宏观投资,因此,综合效应在东部地区最强,并呈现东、中、西部地区依次递减。在金融集聚影响宏观投资的过程中,技术创新具有显著的部分中介效应;技术创新的中介效应具有异质性,随着创新层次的提升,对宏观投资规模的中介效应从无到有并逐步增强,对宏观投资效率的中介效应则表现为先升后降。

Starting from the macro level,this paper uses China’s provincial data from 2003 to 2017 to empirically investigate the impact of financial agglomeration on investment,and uses the intermediary effect test model to analyze the action mechanism of financial agglomeration on macro investment.The results show that,on the whole,financial agglomeration can not only significantly improve the efficiency of macro investment,but also effectively restrain the excessive expansion of macro investment scale.Only when it reaches a high level can financial agglomeration affect macro investment.Therefore,the comprehensive effect is strongest in the eastern region,and shows a regular decline in the eastern,central and western regions.In the process of financial agglomeration affecting macro investment,technological innovation has a significant part of mediating effect.The mediating effect of technological innovation is heterogeneous.With the improvement of innovation level,the mediating effect on the scale of macro investment starts from nothing and gradually increases,while the mediating effect on the efficiency of macro investment rises first and then decreases.