中国北方沿边地区对外贸易受FDI流入影响的实证分析--以内蒙古自治区为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of FDI Inflows on the Foreign Trade in the Border Areas of Northern China--Take Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as an Example

随着“一带一路”倡议和“中蒙俄经济走廊”建设的逐步推进,内蒙古对外贸易的发展对于深化我国全方位、多层次、宽领域的对外开放战略有着不可或缺的作用。而作为沿边落后地区,引进外资是内蒙古经济贸易发展的合理选择,FDI的流入如何影响沿边地区外贸发展成为区域性对外贸易发展政策制定的关键因素。本文利用1985—2017年间内蒙古对外贸易和利用外资的数据进行了分析,通过协整检验发现FDI与进口和出口之间存在唯一的长期均衡关系;格兰杰因果检验的结果显示FDI与对外贸易之间存在单向因果关系;由于格兰杰因果检验可能受制于滞后关系的影响,本文构建了VEC模型对三者之间的关系进行了分析。结果显示内蒙古地区FDI与对外贸易之间是互补关系,即FDI的流入会引导对外贸易的发展。因此,不断吸引FDI是内蒙古对外贸易发展极其活跃北方沿边地区对外贸易政策的重要内容。最后本文对内蒙古利用外资和对外贸易的发展提出了政策建议。

With the gradual advancement of the“Belt and Road”initiative and the construction of the“China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor”,the development of Inner Mongolia's foreign trade has played an indispensable role in deepening China's comprehensive,multi-level,and wide-ranging opening-up strategy.As a marginal and backward region,the introduction of foreign capital is a reasonable choice for the development of Inner Mongolia's economy and trade.How FDI inflows affect the development of foreign trade in the marginal region has become a key factor in the formulation of regional foreign trade development policies.This paper uses Inner Mongolia's foreign trade and foreign capital utilization data from 1985 to 2017 for analysis.Through cointegration tests,it is found that there is a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between FDI and imports and exports.The results of Granger's causality test show that the relationship between FDI and foreign trade There is a one-way cause-effect relationship;as Granger's causality test may be affected by the lag relationship,this article constructs a VEC model to analyze the relationship between the three.The results show that FDI and foreign trade in Inner Mongolia are complementary.That is,the inflow of FDI will guide the development of foreign trade.Therefore,continuously attracting FDI is an important part of the foreign trade development of Inner Mongolia and its active northern border areas.Finally,this article puts forward policy recommendations for the use of foreign capital and the development of foreign trade in Inner Mongolia.