结构性去杠杆对中国宏观经济的影响——基于杠杆转移的视角

The Impact of Structural Deleveraging on China’s Macroeconomy——from the Perspective of Leverage Shifting

本文通过构建TVP-VAR模型和DSGE模型,从杠杆转移的视角出发,对结构性去杠杆对中国宏观经济的影响及不同转杠杆政策之间的差异进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)紧缩国有企业信贷可以有效降低国有企业杠杆率,但也会导致经济下滑;(2)在紧缩国有企业信贷的同时,增加对民营企业的信贷,即杠杆转移,可以同时实现结构性去杠杆和稳增长;(3)从社会福利的角度来看,引导银行部门对国有企业和民营企业的风险预期比定向调整准备金率更优。

From the perspective of leverage shifting, the authors of this paper construct the TVP-VAR model and DSGE model to study the impact of structural deleveraging on China’s macroeconomy and the differences of various leverage shifting policies. The results show that:(1) credit crunch of state-owned enterprises could effectively decrease their leverage ratio but cause economic downturn as well;(2) leverage shifting, tightening the credit of state-owned enterprises and increasing the credit of private enterprises, could simultaneously achieve the structural deleveraging and stable economic growth;(3) in terms of social welfare, it is better to guide the banking sector’s risk expectation of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises than adjust the reserve ratio.