最低工资对农民工非正规就业和工资的影响

The Effects of Minimum Wages on Informal Employment Choice and Wages of Rural Migrant Workers

经济学界对最低工资对非正规部门就业和工资的影响一直存在争议。依据2012-2015年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,本文通过建立就业选择方程分析了最低工资对农民工就业选择的影响,通过建立就业选择偏差修正的工资方程分析了最低工资对正规就业和非正规就业农民工工资的影响。研究结果显示,最低工资对低技能农民工的非正规就业产生了显著的消极影响,但对高技能农民工的非正规就业产生了显著的积极影响,劳动力市场中存在高技能农民工对低技能农民工就业的替代效应;与非正规就业相比,最低工资导致农民工更加倾向于选择正规就业;最低工资对非正规就业的低技能农民工的工资增长存在显著的促进作用,劳动力市场中存在最低工资的灯塔效应。因此,政府部门适度提高最低工资水平将有助于农民工就业状况的改善和工资水平的提升。

The impact of the minimum wages on the employment and wages of the informal sector has been controversial in economic community.Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey data during 2012-2015,this paper establishes the employment choice equation to investigate the impact of minimum wages on the employment choice of rural migrant workers,and establishes the employment selection bias correction wage equations to investigate the impact of minimum wages on wages of formal and informal employment workers.The results show that the minimum wages has a significant negative impact on the informal employment of low-skilled migrant workers,but has a significant positive impact on the informal employment of high-skilled migrant workers,which reveals a substitution effect of high-skilled migrant workers on low-skilled migrant workers in the labor market.Compared with informal employment,the minimum wages will increase the probability that individuals choose formal employment.An increase in minimum wages has a significant positive impact on the wages of informal employment workers,which is called "lighthouse effect" in China’s labor market.Therefore,the government can improve the employment situation and wages of migrant workers by increasing the minimum wages progressively and modestly.