“粮改饲”补贴政策该何去何从——基于试点区肉牛养殖户的微观模拟

Where Should the “Food-fodder Change” Subsidy Policy Go?:Based on the Simulation of Beef Cattle Farmers in the Pilot Area

基于"粮改饲"试点区肉牛养殖户的调研数据和育肥牛生产性能,本文构建了试点区"典型养殖户",并以育肥牛为例构建了肉牛养殖户生产决策行为模型。在"粮改饲"试点补贴政策的实施背景下,模拟了补贴标准、补贴形式、补贴对象及青贮饲草定价方式变动等不同情景下"典型养殖户"育肥牛养殖的最优日粮结构变动及养殖收益变化。研究结果表明,仅依靠提升补贴标准产生的养殖效益增收效果不大;同等补贴标准下,青贮设施建设补贴产生的"增收"效果远低于收贮量补贴;以限定种植户交售质量的全株青贮玉米生产补贴能同时提升种养农户的收益;以干物质含量为基础的全株青贮玉米定价方式能较好地推动补贴效果。

Based on the collecting data of beef cattle farmers in the pilot area of "food crops to fodder crops",a production decision-making behavior model was constructed to simulate different policy scenarios,including subsidy standards,forms,objects as well as fodder pricing changes.The results show that: i) the profit brought by raising subsidy standard is not significant;ii)under the same subsidy standard,profit brought by infrastructure subsidies is lower than the subsidy based on silage corn yield;iii) with the silage corn quality limit,subsidy based on silage corn production will both benefit for planting and breeding farmers;iv)silage corn pricing based on dry matter content may better promote the subsidy effect.