文家沟泥石流防治工程监测预警级别研究

Study on the Monitoring and Early Warning Level of the Mudslide Prevention and Control Project in Wenjiagou

为了研究泥石流启动时对应的降雨强度,考虑降雨强度的影响,越精确的雨量预警临界值越能保证对泥石流快速、准确的预警。通过收集整理文家沟2008—2015年的降雨数据和每次降雨对应泥石流的发生情况,通过径流系数的计算来确定降雨临界值,得出在前期含水量湿润和一般的情况下分为4个级别预警临界值,即Ⅰ级预警值为56.46 mm/h和58.5 mm/h、Ⅱ级预警值49.04 mm/h和51.4 mm/h、Ⅲ级预警值为43.71 mm/h和45.65 mm/h、Ⅳ级预警值为38.43 mm/h和39.48 mm/h。历史结果表明文家沟泥石流采用这种方法进行预警是可以提高精度的,可为文家沟泥石流预警预报提供一些帮助。

In order to study the corresponding rainfall intensity at the beginning of the mudslide,this paper mainly explored the effect of rainfall intensity.The more accurate the rainfall warning threshold,the more accurate the early warning of the mudslide.By collecting and sorting the data of rainfall in Wenjiagou from 2008 to 2015 and the occurrence times of mudslide when raining.The rainfall threshold was determined through the calculation of runoff coefficient.It is concluded that in the early conditions of heavy and medium moistures,there are four levels of warning thresholds:LevelⅠwith 56.46 mm/h and 58.5 mm/h,levelⅡwith 49.04 mm/h and 51.4 mm/h,levelⅢwith 43.71 mm/h and 45.65 mm/h,and levelⅣwith 38.43 mm/h and 39.48 mm/h.The results show that early warning of mudslides in Wenjiagou can be improved with this method.