人口总量控制与结构优化的两全机制——生育权交易机制的可行性分析

Trading Mechanism of Reproductive Rights under the Planned Quota System—Both to Control the Total Population and Optimize the Population Structure Mechanism

鉴于中国现在人口总量巨大、结构多维度不合理的国情,依靠简单地放松生育管制甚至鼓励生育,不仅不能解决结构问题,而且会加剧总量问题。我们提出一个新思路:在初始生育权人人平等的前提(每一对夫妇两个生育指标)下,国家控制生育总量,通过立法和制定具体规则,允许生育指标通过市场进行交易,从而实现实际生育指标的优化配置,这既能够控制生育总量,又能够优化人口结构,解决短期和长期的人口总量和结构问题。这一体现了人口的计划调节和市场调节相结合的机制,通过精心设计、严格立法和加强管理,并采取相应的配套措施,是可以实施并取得较好效果的。

Now given China’s huge amount of population,multidimensional structure unreasonable conditions,rely on simply relax birth control even encourage birth,not only can’t solve the problem of structure,and the total will exacerbate the problem,we put forward a new way of thinking:Everyone is equal in initial reproductive rights premise(every couple two fertility index),the total national birth control,through legislation and formulate specific rules,allow fertility index through the market to trade,so as to realize the optimal allocation of the actual fertility index,total both to birth control,and to optimize the structure of population,to solve the problems of population and the structure of short and long term.This is the plan reflects the population regulation and market regulation with the combination of mechanism design.