中国经济增长新时期与政策重心转变

The New Period of China’s Economic Growth and the Shifts in Policy Focus

随着人均收入达到世界上中等水平,改革动能及增长效应逐渐衰减,中国经济进入了一个新的历史发展时期,呈现出三大基本特征:资本从十分短缺变为相对丰裕,资本回报率持续下行;长期经济增长率拐头向下;经济增长从投资拉动为主转向投资与创新驱动并举。基于上述特征可以发现,2008年以来持续时间最长的此轮经济调整,是由长期增长率下行和短期中经济对趋势的向下偏离共振所致,由于后者的影响占比更大,尤其是2020年初以来的新冠疫情冲击,使得这一偏离遽然拉大,周期性政策就显得更为举足轻重。新时期宏观调控重心应从财政政策转向货币政策。积极的财政政策重心应从以基础设施为代表的政府支出转向减税,以与相对并且将越来越丰裕的资本相适应。货币政策重心应从货币数量转向利率,并在较长一段时间内将利率维持在低位,以与较低的投资回报率相适应。

With its per capita income reaching the middle level in the world and the momentum of reform gradually declining,the economy of China has entered a new period of development,showing three basic characteristics:the capital has changed from very short to relatively abundant leading to a consistent declining rate of return on capital;the long-term economic growth rate has turned downward.the economic growth has gone from investment driven alone to both investment and innovation driven.The current longest round of economic downward adjustment since 2008 stemming from both the in the long-term growth rate and the short term deviations from the trend implicates that in the new period the heart of China’s macroeconomic policy should turn from fiscal to monetary policy.The focus of fiscal policy should shift from government spending to tax cuts and that of monetary policy should shift from quantity of money to interest rates.