交流的融贯性、真实性和效率

Coherence,Truthfulness,and Efficiency in Communication

为什么我们应该使我们的信念保持一致,或者更一般地说,为什么应该保持概率融贯?保持融贯可以避免落入一种无论拿到什么结果都会输掉的赌局,并且将最大限度地增加一个人持有准确信念的机会。然而,这些理由是以自我为中心的,信念融贯或不融贯的后果是对于我们自己而言的。不融贯会给他人带来后果,因为不融贯容易误导他人,让他人对我们的信念产生错误的信念,对我们的行为产生错误的预期。真实性的伦理规范约束我们要么遵从听众所预期的逻辑,要么教他们新的逻辑。这并不能说明概率融贯是唯一能使真实交流成为可能的逻辑,但是概率融贯在使交流效率最大化的方面优于其他逻辑。

Why should we make our beliefs consistent or,more generally,probabilistically coherent?That it will prevent sure losses in betting and that it will maximize one’s chances of having accurate beliefs are popular answers.However,these justifications are self-centered,focused on the consequences of our coherence for ourselves.This paper argue that incoherence has consequences for others because it is liable to mislead others,to false beliefs about one’s beliefs and false expectations about one’s behavior.This paper argue that the moral obligation of truthfulness thus constrains us to either conform to the logic our audience assumes we use,educate them in a new logic,or give notice that one will do neither.This does not show that probabilistic coherence is uniquely suited to making truthful communication possible,but the probabilistic coherence is superior to other logics for maximizing efficiency in communication.