面向新能源汽车的关键高技术矿产循环利用潜力评估与开发策略

Recycling Potential Evaluation and Development Strategies of High-Tech Minerals for New Energy Vehicles

新能源汽车是我国的战略性新兴产业,然而其发展受到关键高技术矿产可供性的制约,循环利用成为保障新能源汽车关键资源供给的有力举措。本文识别了17种新能源汽车所需的关键高技术矿产,确定了5大类22种循环利用终端产品,并基于资源、技术、环境3个方面构建了循环利用潜力指数,对我国新能源汽车所需关键高技术矿产循环利用潜力进行评估,模拟其未来演变趋势。研究表明:我国新能源汽车所需关键高技术矿产循环利用潜力呈现出四种演化模式,一是循环利用潜力指数长期处于或者快速上升至高水平,主要包括钴、钛、锂、钕、镝;二是循环利用潜力指数持续增长至中等水平,主要包括钇、铽、镨、铕、镓;三是循环利用潜力指数由中低水平增长至中等水平又回落至中低水平,主要包括铈和镧;四是循环利用潜力指数虽有增长但仍处于较低水平,主要包括铂、铬、铟、钆、硒。根据新能源汽车所需关键高技术矿产循环利用潜力的演化趋势,需要在不同阶段针对性地采用重点开发、储备、消化、转移等策略,并需从技术追踪、重点目录调整、回收效率提升、资源替代等方面保障新能源汽车所需关键高技术矿产的资源供给。

New energy vehicles(NEVs),a strategic emerging industry in China,face the supply restriction of critical hightech minerals(CHMs).Recycling has become a powerful measure to solve this issue.In this paper,17 kinds of CHMs for NEVs are identified,and 22 types of products in 5 categories containing these CHMs are listed.Based on three aspects of resources,technology,and environment,a comprehensive recycling potential index(RPI)is constructed to evaluate the recycling potential of CHMs for NEVs in China,and simulate its future evolution trend.The results show that the recycling potential of CHMs for China's NEVs shows four evolution modes.First,the RPI is at or rising rapidly to a high level,such as cobalt,titanium,lithium,neodymium,and dysprosium.Second,the RPI continues to grow to the medium level,including yttrium,terbium,praseodymium,europium,and gallium.Third,the RPI increases from the low to the medium level and then falls back to the low level,including cerium and lanthanum.Fourth,the RPI increases but is still relatively small,including platinum,chromium,indium,gadolinium,and selenium.According to the evolution trend,different strategies,including key development,reserves,digestion,and transfer,should be adopted in different stages for each CHMs.Moreover,measures such as tracking the NEVs’technologies,adjusting the key development list,promoting the recycling technology,and looking for substitute resources should be taken to encourage the recycling of CHMs for NEVs.