航天器再入陨落解体模型及分析预报策略研究

Disintegration Modeling of Spacecraft During Reentry Fall and Primal Strategy of Analyzing and Forecasting

针对非常规再入问题,以航天器再入陨落解体分析预报为研究内容,对其物形架构构建了系统/子系统、部件、碎片/微粒的三层级模型,用于涵盖航天器解体研究对象的结构组成及碎片的各种几何特征,这些几何特征能够反映研究对象的气动力/热及飞行运动特性,在不同解体情况下具有普遍适应性。针对航天器再入陨落解体分析预报的技术途径,提出了基于条件边界的参数统计方法的基本策略,给出了航天器再入陨落时的气动力/热、飞行运动、解体、残骸碎片存活可能性、落区及地面风险等工程问题的评估解决策略。最后通过据此开发的软件系统进行了一例大型航天器再入陨落解体过程分析预报,结果表明了模型及方法的适用性。

Spacecraft disintegration during reentry fall is a typical unconventional reentry problem.To analyze and forecast the spacecraft reentry disintegration,a three phases model(TPM for short)including the system/subsystem,component,and debris/particle was proposed which could be used for various geometric objects.The proposed primal strategy of analysis and forecast was the parameter statistical method based on condition boundary.The TPM could be used to give the various geometric characteristics as well as the aerodynamic and aeroheating and flight properties.Moreover,the TPM could be applied to various spacecraft by modifying some parameters.The evaluation strategy for the flight,aerodynamic,aeroheating,debris surviving,falling region and ground risk during spacecraft reentry was given.Finally,a set of software based on the model and method was developed.The analysis and forecast of the reentry and disintegration of a large-scale spacecraft demonstrated the applicability of the model and method proposed in this paper.